The Moneyball Approach to Real Estate: Rethinking Tenant Potential with David Johnston, USMA ’16
Oct 4, 2026
“We always try to evaluate people based on historical performance, and we don’t try to assess their future potential.” – David Johnston, USMA ‘16
David Johnston is the founder of Keystone Holdings of Texas, where he’s rethinking how multifamily investors evaluate opportunity. After serving in the U.S. Army and graduating from West Point, David built a growing apartment portfolio while earning his MBA at Columbia Business School before joining Nuveen’s affordable housing investment team.
As David grew his portfolio, he began questioning the way landlords traditionally evaluate tenants. Rather than relying solely on credit scores and rental history, he developed an approach centered on understanding a person's circumstances, character, and future potential. That philosophy has shaped both his investment strategy and his vision for using data to identify overlooked opportunities within the rental housing market.
In this episode of the SABM podcast, Scott chats with David about:
Investing in Future Potential: Why David believes traditional tenant screening overlooks people who simply need an opportunity, and how that philosophy has reshaped his investment strategy.
Scaling with an Unconventional Strategy: How David grew from a single fourplex to a 90-unit portfolio by taking a different approach to serving tenants and creating long-term value.
Lessons from Institutional Real Estate: David compares building his own portfolio with managing thousands of affordable housing units, and the lessons he's applying from both worlds.
The Moneyball Approach to Real Estate: How David is using analytics and AI to measure future potential and rethink the way investors evaluate opportunity.
Navigating What's Next: David shares the challenges shaping today's real estate market, along with his vision for scaling Keystone Holdings and his unique investment model.
Timestamps:
00:51 David’s Army to Real Estate Journey
02:51 Keystone Strategy Explained
05:15 Scaling with Data and Four Levers
08:05 Tenant Interviews and Screening
10:50 Coaching Tenants to Win
15:32 Future Potential vs Past Metrics
16:13 Scaling Plans and Moneyball Model
18:12 Day Job at Nuveen Affordable Housing
20:29 Rates Outlook and Buying All Cash
22:27 Columbia MBA and AI at Work
25:22 Current Challenges and Ask for Help
Connect with David:
If you found value in today's episode, don't keep it to yourself—share it with a colleague or friend who could benefit. And if you're a Service Academy graduate ready to elevate your business, we'd love for you to join our community and get started today.
Make sure you never miss an episode; subscribe now and help support the show:
Leave us a 5-star review!
A special thank you to David for joining me this week. Until next time!
-Scott Mackes, USNA '01